Macroeconomic data
Labor Force Participation Rate
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) equals labor force divided by population. Female LFPR grew steadily after WWII, then plateaued in the noughts. Male LFPR mostly declined, due to an increasing number of males in retirement. Especially teenagers experienced a reduction in LFPR during the 21st century. Note the conspicuous reduction in LFPR during and following the Great Recession. Much of this is due to retirement of Baby Boomers; some portion is due to discouraged job-seekers dropping out of the labor force.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate for adult men and women are of similar magnitude, while teenagers have a much higher rate. Note that the unemployment rate lags, in that it peaks at the end or even after a recession (the pink bars). In the recovery after the most recent recession, teenager unemployment has reached historically high levels, and male unemployment has exceeded that of females.
Natural rate of unemployment
The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the unemployment rate net of cyclical unemployment (i.e., it considers only seasonal, frictional, and structural unemployment). The short-term NAIRU indicates the threshold for which inflation would ignite, should the actual unemployment rate fall below that level. Note the curious fact that the unemployment rate dips below the NAIRU immediately preceding each of the recessionary periods in the chart.
Federal non-farm minimum wage
The minimum wage was first established in 1938. Its real value (adjusted for consumer prices) has changed a great deal over the years. Note that the real minimum wage has often been higher than it is today.
Producer prices and Consumer prices
The most popular way to measure inflation in consumer goods prices is based on the Consumer Price Index. The Producer Price Index provides a measure of inflation for producer goods. Note that producer prices are by far the most volatile, and that they tend to fall sharply during and after recessions (the pink bars). They also appear to lead consumer prices.
Crude Oil Prices
Oil prices surged prior to and into the latest recession. During the noughts, demand for petroleum from newly industrializing countries (most notably China) drove up prices. At those higher prices, it became profitable to extract petroleum from more difficult sources, such as shale (fracking), leading to a much greater supply, which in turn pushed down prices.
US Gasoline Prices
Gasoline prices track oil prices. Note the post-Katrina spike in gasoline prices (September 2005) due to the hurricane smashing Gulf coast refineries.
Gold Prices
Gold prices typically rise during times of crisis and uncertainty, when investors perceive gold as a relatively safe haven.
Interest Rates
Here one can see how yields are higher on riskier bonds (Baa is riskier than Aaa).Interest rates spiked sharply in the early 1980s, due to high inflation and the Feds (successful) efforts to reduce that inflation.
Interest Rate Spread
The difference between the yield on a 10 year Treasury and the yield on a 1 year Treasury is an indication of maturity risk. However, it changes over time, and it is believed that a narrowing of that difference might signal an imminent recession.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are currently at historic lows. Note the risk premium built into the 30 year mortgage versus the 15 year.
Real Interest Rates
This graph compares the nominal and real rates on the 10-year US Treasury bond. The real rate is calculated as the nominal rate minus the CPI inflation rate. 
Real per capita income
By historical standards, we are incredibly rich. The average American today has about three times as much stuff as the average American in 1955, the year I was born.
GDP Growth
As can be seen by the five-year rolling average, the annual percent change in GDP is declining. Note how the most recent recession was unusually severe, with an unsually weak recovery.
Potential GDP growth
Potential GDP grows as labor increases, and as labor productivity increases. Currently potential GDP growth is just under 2%, considerably below the level of previous decades. The low growth is due to both declining labor productivity growth rates and diminishing population growth rates. Note that immigration accounts for nearly half of the growth rate of population.
Output and Labor in US Manufacturing
The value of manufacturing output has grown over the past two decades, except during recessions. The replacement of labor with kapital has led to a shrinking manufacturing labor force and increasing productivity. The usual narrative is that wages rise as productivity rises.
GDP Composition
AD=C+I+G+(X-M). Personal Consumption expenditures (C) make up about 60 percent of GDP. This chart shows the share made up by private Investment (I) (physical capital only, but showing both residential and nonresidential), by Government spending (G) (federal only, but showing both defense and non-defense), and by net exports (X-M).
Transfer payments as a share of GDP
Looking only at G (government expenditures) leads to an underestimate of government role in the economomy since transfer payments hide mostly in C (consumption expenditures). Note the tremendous surge in Federal transfers towards the end of the Bush term, as a result of Medicare entitlements.
Federal personal income tax rates
The Federal Income Tax was introduced following the ratification of the 16th amendment to the Constitution, in 1913. It is remarkable how much the rates have changed over time, and how extraordinarily high the highest bracket was during the mid-20th century. (Thanks to Bronwyn Graves for bringing this series to my attention).
The threshold income level for the application of the highest tax rate has also changed considerably. The periods of the highest marginal rates were also ones of very high boundaries to the highest bracket.
| date range | nominal boundary ($) | real boundary (2015 $) |
|---|---|---|
| 1913 to 1916 | 500,000 | 11,923,827 |
| 1916 to 1918 | 2,000,000 | 44,943,654 |
| 1918 to 1922 | 1,000,000 | 16,693,357 |
| 1922 to 1924 | 200,000 | 2,765,763 |
| 1924 to 1925 | 500,000 | 6,754,538 |
| 1925 to 1932 | 100,000 | 1,350,908 |
| 1932 to 1936 | 1,000,000 | 16,343,147 |
| 1936 to 1942 | 5,000,000 | 84,676,449 |
| 1942 to 1948 | 200,000 | 2,977,159 |
| 1948 to 1965 | 400,000 | 3,944,422 |
| 1965 to 1977 | 200,000 | 1,498,122 |
| 1977 to 1979 | 203,200 | 811,782 |
| 1979 to 1982 | 215,400 | 737,050 |
| 1982 to 1983 | 85,600 | 212,145 |
| 1983 to 1984 | 109,400 | 261,427 |
| 1984 to 1985 | 162,400 | 372,463 |
| 1985 to 1986 | 169,020 | 374,419 |
| 1986 to 1987 | 175,250 | 373,697 |
| 1987 to 1988 | 90,000 | 189,151 |
| 1988 to 1989 | 29,750 | 60,093 |
| 1989 to 1990 | 30,950 | 59,729 |
| 1990 to 1991 | 32,450 | 59,527 |
| 1991 to 1992 | 82,150 | 142,638 |
| 1992 to 1993 | 86,500 | 146,384 |
| 1993 to 1995 | 250,000 | 409,725 |
| 1995 to 1996 | 256,500 | 398,841 |
| 1996 to 1997 | 263,750 | 399,224 |
| 1997 to 1998 | 271,050 | 398,154 |
| 1998 to 1999 | 278,450 | 402,696 |
| 1999 to 2000 | 283,150 | 402,764 |
| 2000 to 2001 | 288,350 | 399,226 |
| 2001 to 2002 | 297,350 | 396,875 |
| 2002 to 2003 | 307,050 | 405,193 |
| 2003 to 2004 | 311,950 | 401,238 |
| 2004 to 2005 | 319,100 | 402,678 |
| 2005 to 2006 | 326,450 | 400,072 |
| 2006 to 2007 | 336,550 | 396,642 |
| 2007 to 2008 | 349,700 | 403,759 |
| 2008 to 2009 | 357,700 | 396,044 |
| 2009 to 2010 | 372,950 | 412,806 |
| 2010 to 2011 | 373,650 | 402,999 |
| 2011 to 2012 | 379,150 | 402,365 |
| 2012 to 2013 | 388,350 | 400,415 |
| 2013 to 2014 | 450,000 | 456,697 |
| 2014 to 2015 | 457,600 | 457,191 |
| 2015 to 2016 | 466,950 | 466,950 |
Changes in Wealth
The major stock indices measure the market valuation of a subset of publicly traded stocks: the DJIA is based on 30 stocks, and the S&P500 is based on 500 stocks. Here we show an index calculated by the OECD, for all stocks in the US. Home equity is a major form of wealth for US households. Note how the decline in home equity led the decline in stock values, as the recession began in 2008.
Price of the US dollar measured in foreign currency (exchange rates)
High values mean that our dollar is more expensive (stronger). Note that the Chinese Yuan does not fluctuate nearly as much as the other two currencies.
Changes in Food Prices
High food prices often lead to political turmoil, especially in the developing world.
Ice Cream Production
Hmmmmm. What is the message conveyed by this chart?
Compiled on 2019-10-21 by E. Anthon Eff
